The referendum that is scottish Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent chance of a ‘no’ vote, while the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.
Did bookies know the results associated with referendum that is scottish advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.
Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 % of voters determining against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was as wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns were split straight down the middle.
The reality is, polls were throughout the spot: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from the six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote into the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.
Margins of Error
Not the bookies, though. That they had it all figured out ages ago. Although the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online activities betting outfit Betfair had already determined to pay out bettors who had their funds on a’no’ vote several times prior to the referendum even occurred. And even though there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, i